Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2945 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2945 · LGA → MIA

departs 11:00 AM ET · arrives 2:11 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.11 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2945 · LGA → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?