Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2950 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2950 · DFW → PNS

departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 11:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PNS?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at PNS that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.08 in

PNS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2950 · DFW → PNS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PNS?