Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3118 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3118 · DEN → MIA

departs 12:11 PM MT · arrives 6:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3118 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?