AA 3121 · BWI → CLT

departs 8:18 PM ET · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3121 · BWI → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?