Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3190 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3190 · ATL → MIA

departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 9:05 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.80 in

MIA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3190 · ATL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?