Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3224 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3224 · DCA → VPS

departs 10:57 AM ET · arrives 12:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to VPS?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at VPS that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

VPS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.27 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3224 · DCA → VPS

Odds over time

How late will it get to VPS?