AA 3281 · RDU → MIA

departs 4:52 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.30 in

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3281 · RDU → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?