Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 411 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 411 · ORD → CLT

departs 8:25 AM CT · arrives 10:54 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 411 · ORD → CLT

Odds over time