AA 424 · MSY → CLT

departs 7:01 AM CT · arrives 10:04 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.03 in

CLT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 424 · MSY → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?