AA 430 · CLT → CVG

took off 8:35 AM ET · expected to land 9:26 AM ET (scheduled 8:20 AM ET → 9:45 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CVG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.16 in

CVG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 430 · CLT → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?