AA 477 · MIA → STL

departs 11:17 AM ET · arrives 1:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 477 · MIA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?