Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 836 · CLT → ORD

departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 836 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?