AA 902 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
37%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

LGA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?