Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 902 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:01 PM ET · arrives 8:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.78 in

LGA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?