Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1533 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 1533 · JNU → SEA

departs 7:00 AM AKDT · arrives 10:29 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.5 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JNU (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.49 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1533 · JNU → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?