Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 215 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 215 · AUS → SEA

departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 10:58 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 215 · AUS → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?