Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 251 · GEG → PDX

departs 12:42 PM PT · arrives 1:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from GEG are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 251 · GEG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?