Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2616 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:36 PM PT, ETA 7:13 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

took off 12:36 PM PT · expected to land 7:13 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBD

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CVG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

Odds over time