Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2616 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

departs 12:52 PM PT · arrives 7:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBD

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

CVG (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2616 · SBD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?