Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 573SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AS 573 · EWR → SAN
departs 6:29 PM ET · arrives 9:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 100h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Sunday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%chance · ±24 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.