Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 615 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AS 615 · SEA → STL

departs 6:04 PM PT · arrives 11:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 615 · SEA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?