Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:18 AM PT · arrives 12:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?