Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 656 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

departs 10:18 AM PT · arrives 12:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±3 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 656 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?