Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 1533 · ORD → MSP
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 5:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 23%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.