DL 1788 · SMF → MSP

departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 6:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1788 · SMF → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?