Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
DL 1853 · MSP → GEG
departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 11:39 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at GEG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GEG?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from MSP are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GEG (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.