Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1868 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

DL 1868 · ATL → TLH

departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TLH?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at TLH that day

↑ 3pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.67 in

TLH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1868 · ATL → TLH

Odds over time

How late will it get to TLH?