Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2074
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2074 · MSP → SFO
departs 11:00 AM CT · arrives 1:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.