Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2189 · JAX → ATL
departs 8:18 PM ET · arrives 9:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.22 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.96 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.