Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2264
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2264 · MSP → TPA
departs 1:19 PM CT · arrives 5:32 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.