Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2521 · RDU → MSP
departs 2:46 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 10%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip 1.34 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.