Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2656
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
DL 2656 · IAH → MSP
departs 10:49 AM CT · arrives 1:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↑
10am departures from IAH are often late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.17 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.