Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

DL 475 · ILM → MSP

departs 3:25 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.28 in

MSP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 475 · ILM → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?