Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 475 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Today

DL 475 · MSP → ILM

departs 10:42 AM CT · arrives 2:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at ILM that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ ILM usually runs smoothly

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 475 · MSP → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?