DL 612 · AUA → JFK

departs 1:57 PM AST · arrives 6:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 612 · AUA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?