DL 612 · AUA → JFK

departs 1:57 PM AST · arrives 6:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUA

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 612 · AUA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?