Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 1741 · RDU → IAH
departs 10:20 AM ET · arrives 12:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 22%
Thu 10/8 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↓
10am departures from RDU are usually not late
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.24 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.