Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 2530 · DTW → MCO
departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 10:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.