Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
F9 3315 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:00 PM PT · arrives 5:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 24%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.