Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3315
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
F9 3315 · LAX → SMF
departs 4:05 PM PT · arrives 5:38 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.