Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
F9 4474 · STL → ATL
departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 9:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sat 10/3 37%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 32%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±10 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 2.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.