Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
F9 4474 · STL → ATL
departs 4:57 PM CT · arrives 7:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 27%
Wed 10/7 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at ATL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.51 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.