Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
F9 4474 · STL → ATL
departs 6:34 PM CT · arrives 9:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 36%
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 32%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±7 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 967 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.33 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.