Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3433 · DFW → BIS
departs 10:40 AM CT · arrives 1:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at BIS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BIS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
10am departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BIS
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
BIS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.