Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3469 · DFW → BHM
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 11:46 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Thu 10/8 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BHM that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Arrivals into BHM at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.08 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.