Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3492 · JAX → MIA
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.