Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3517 · EYW → MIA
departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.