Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
MQ 3529 · DFW → FSM
departs 8:21 AM CT · arrives 9:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.