Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
MQ 3529 · DFW → FSM
departs 8:20 AM CT · arrives 9:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at FSM that day
↓
Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.77 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.