Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
MQ 3529 · DFW → FSM
departs 8:21 AM CT · arrives 9:36 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −18 pts in 24h
−18 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FSM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at FSM that day
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.10 in
FSM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.